The latest oil discovery in Türkiye strongly supports the energy sector (article)

The announcement of the largest oil discovery in Turkey comes recently, with the largest important onshore reserves, after many years of the country’s dependence on energy imports.

This discovery is expected to increase domestic oil production and reduce Turkey’s dependence on foreign sources.

An oil discovery in Turkey sparked discussions about the country’s energy security and the possibility of it becoming a major oil-producing country.

On May 2, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced, at a rally in the city of Konya, the discovery of a new oil reserve in the Jabbar region of Şırnak Province, capable of producing 100,000 barrels per day.

In another rally in Van, on May 5 (2023), Erdogan declared that Turkey would no longer depend on foreign energy sources and would become an energy exporter.

The latest oil discovery in Turkey is set to provide a tenth of Turkey’s daily oil consumption.

The first batch of oil from the new reserves was sent to refineries for processing, and Erdogan stated that Turkey had started producing oil from previously abandoned areas, due to terrorism or as a result of the belief that they were empty of oil.

Erdogan claimed that Turkey made one of the 10 largest land discoveries in the world last year, and doubled its daily production to 80,000 barrels per day 5 to 6 years ago.

Reservoir of the well of the martyr Ibuka Yalcin-1

The discovery in the Shahid Aybuke Yalcin-1 well contains an estimated 650 million barrels of recoverable oil reserves, according to TPAO CEO Melih Han Bilgin.

Necdet Pamir, an energy policy expert, disagrees with the statement made by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a rally on May 3, who claimed that the production capacity of an oil well in the exploration phase is “100,000 barrels per day.”

Pamir believes that such an estimate is inaccurate, and that after discovering an oil field, the first step should be to conduct tests by drilling exploration wells, estimating reserves, and determining the amount that can be produced.

Pamir Necdet Pamir, former head of the Turkish National Oil Company (TPAO) petroleum engineer, focuses on the fact that not all of the oil can be produced in the field, and that some of it is still at the bottom.

Pamir criticizes the assumption that a “extraction factor” of 60% applies to the martyr Ibuque Yalcin field, as only 30% of the oil can be obtained under the best conditions.

Pamir says the amount of oil produced can be increased by injecting carbon dioxide, and he cautions against assuming that the reservoir characteristics in one well will be the same in the rest of the field.

Pamir stresses the necessity of drilling several wells and conducting long-term tests to estimate the reserves accurately, as the disclosure of the reserves is not always accurate, and can range from one billion barrels to 5 billion, 10 billion, or only 1/10 of this quantity.

He adds that it is not possible to double the Turkish oil production by drilling 100 wells at one time.

It should be noted that the Turkish National Oil Company is currently producing approximately 60-65 thousand barrels per day from 40 fields in Turkey.

Turkish presidential elections

It is easy to speculate that the crucial presidential elections are looming in just one week, and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan knows this.

Just two weeks after announcing free gas supplies from a new field in the Black Sea, Erdogan made another important announcement this week regarding the country’s energy future, with the announcement of Turkey’s latest oil discovery.

The timing of this announcement before the May 14 elections is just perfect.

Addressing a crowd of supporters in the conservative city of Konya, Erdogan announced an oil discovery in Turkey, near the Syrian border.

The discovery is expected to provide the country with about 100,000 barrels per day, which is just over a tenth of daily consumption.

Erdogan expects that the announcement of Turkey’s latest oil discovery will rally supporters for his campaign to make the country great again.

Appealing to patriotic and often nationalist voters, Erdogan enjoys portraying himself as a self-sufficient leader who will stop Turkey’s dependence on foreign technologies, particularly in the defense sector.

During his election campaign, Erdoğan attached himself to the domestically manufactured electric car Tog, the Kaan fighter jet, and the warship Anadolu, the country’s first aircraft carrier.

Developing oil wells

According to experts, seismic studies were conducted in the Gabar Dagi region in two and three dimensions several years ago, and wells in the region were not developed for security and technological reasons.

The head of the Turkish Society of Petroleum Engineers, İnanç Alptuğ Hadiroğlu, claims that Turkey has taken an important step towards achieving energy independence by planning to drill more than 200 wells by 2023, which means about 18-20 wells per month.

However, energy policy expert Pamir takes a different view, arguing that Turkey’s dependence on foreign energy has increased in the past years, and that the country should use its abundant renewable energy resources instead.

Turkey’s daily oil consumption is about 950,000 barrels, while the country’s oil production is only about 65,000 barrels.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the possibility that the Gabar region’s oil reserves would produce 100,000 barrels per day, which could meet 10% of Turkey’s oil needs from one region.

Erdogan claims that Turkey’s latest oil discovery highlights his country’s growing role in the global energy sector. Its strategic location at the intersection of Europe and Asia makes it a vital center for energy transmission.

Turkey’s increased domestic oil production could help boost its position in the energy market, making it a formidable competitor to traditional oil-producing countries in the Middle East.

Turkey’s recent announcement of its largest offshore oil discovery represents an important development for the country’s energy sector. This discovery is expected to reduce Turkey’s energy imports and increase its domestic oil production, which contributes to enhancing energy security and economic growth in the country.

On the other hand, this discovery aroused the interest of global energy companies, and an increase in Turkey’s oil production could help the country become an important player in the global energy market.

This development raises concerns about the country’s long-term environmental impact, and the Turkish government’s prioritization of domestic companies could limit the potential participation of foreign investors.

Overall, the discovery of onshore oil reserves is an important development for Turkey, as it provides a unique opportunity for the country to realize its ambitions of becoming a major oil producing country.

Since the current declared reserves and the recoverable reserve values ​​are not sound, commenting on them is pointless.

Reliance on foreign sources

Turkey relies heavily on foreign oil and natural gas resources, providing 92% of its oil and more than 99% of its natural gas.

It is not clear whether these “discoveries” are merely an election investment, as announced on the eve of the elections.

Experts believe that regardless of whether the potential for oil production in the Ghapar region is 100 barrels or 200 barrels, the discovery is significant, and the efforts of the people who contributed to it must be appreciated.

Experts pointed out that there is no scientific evidence to support the idea that the discovery can be estimated based on a single well.

Forecasting of produceable reserves requires drilling detection wells and controlling the mechanism of the stock drive, and these mechanisms vary, so the worst case scenario is that only 1-1.5% of the oil can be obtained in situ in the field, as shown in the Raman West field.

* Dr. Omod Shoukry, senior advisor on foreign policy and energy geopolitics, is the author of “US Energy Diplomacy in the Caspian Basin: Changing Trends Since 2001.”

*This article represents the opinion of the author, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the energy platform.