The Energy Information Administration cuts oil price forecasts in 2023

The Energy Information Administration cuts oil price forecasts in 2023

The US Energy Information Administration cut its oil price forecast in 2023, and cut estimates of US crude production.

According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook report for March 2023 – issued today, Tuesday, March 7 – it is expected that the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil will record $ 77.10 per barrel during 2023, which represents a decrease of 1%, compared to $ 77.84 in February estimates. /February.

While the Energy Information Administration kept its forecasts for Brent and West Texas crude next year (2024), at $76.58 and $71.57 a barrel, respectively, according to the report seen by the Energy Research Unit.

Oil price forecast

The Energy Information Administration lowered its estimates for the price of Brent crude by 0.8%, to reach the level of $82.95 a barrel during the current year, compared to $83.63 a barrel previously forecast.

The reduction in oil price expectations in 2023 came with the rise in global oil stocks to an expected level of 2.893 billion barrels by the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to 2.774 billion barrels in the same quarter of 2022.

In the past year (2022), it is estimated that Brent crude recorded a level of $ 100.94 per barrel, while US crude reached $ 94.91 per barrel.

US oil production

Average oil production in the United States is likely to drop to 12.44 million barrels per day in 2023, down 0.4% from the previous estimate of 12.49 million barrels per day.

The Energy Information Administration also cut its estimate of average US oil production next year by 0.2%, to be expected to reach 12.63 million barrels per day.

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While it is estimated that oil production in the United States has reached 11.88 million barrels per day over the past year, according to data seen by the Energy Research Unit.

The following graph shows crude oil production in the United States on a monthly basis, between 2019 and 2022:

Crude oil production in the United States

OPEC production and the world

Average OPEC crude oil production is expected to drop to 28.63 million barrels per day this year, compared to the previous estimate of 28.66 million barrels per day.

OPEC oil production is likely to reach 29.29 million barrels per day next year, down from 29.31 million barrels per day previously estimated.

The Energy Information Administration expects world production of oil and other liquids to reach 101.47 million barrels per day this year, up 0.4% from previous estimates, and compared to 99.86 million last year.

In 2024, world production of oil and other liquids is likely to reach 103.02 million barrels per day, compared to 102.61 million in previous expectations.


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