India is expected to lead global oil demand, after it was quick to take advantage of Russian rivalries in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine. In an effort to meet the growing needs inside.
This came in the words of the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, who expected India to overtake China to be the main engine for the growth of global demand for oil soon, according to a report published by the Indian newspaper “The Economictimes”, which was reviewed by the specialized energy platform.
Birol pointed out that the high rates of population increase in India – which may have exceeded that of China – is the reason for the high demand for oil in India, the third largest oil consumer in the world now.
The United Nations Population Fund says that India’s population will reach 1.428 billion by the middle of this year (2023), overtaking China, which will have a population of 1.425 billion.
demand for oil
The head of the International Energy Agency said, on the sidelines of the Group of Twenty meetings held in the capital, New Delhi: “The demand for oil in India is rising, and I believe that it will overtake China to be the main engine for the growth of oil demand in the world.”
He added, “One of the factors behind the decline in oil demand in China is the rapid electrification of cars and buses.”
He hoped India would follow China’s lead, especially with the rise in electrification of battery-electric vehicles.
It is noteworthy that electric vehicles in China doubled, reaching 6.1 million units in 2022, compared to only 48,000 in India during the same period.
consumption of petroleum products
In a related context, the rate of consumption of oil products in India during the fiscal year 2022-2023, which ended in March, increased by more than 10% on an annual basis, to record a record of 222.3 million tons of oil (1.578 million barrels).
Crude oil production decreased by 1.7%, to reach only 28.2 million tons (200.22 million barrels), according to a report published by the Indian Express newspaper, which was reviewed by the specialized energy platform.
India’s oil imports increased by 9.4% year-on-year, to reach 232.4 million tons (1,650 million barrels), at a cost of $158.3 million, up from $120.7 billion in the 2020-21 fiscal year.
(A ton = 1.7 barrels).
Prospects for Renewable Energy in India
Fatih Birol predicted that India would lag behind the rest of the world in abandoning fossil fuel sources and switching to renewable energy sources.
However, he pointed out in this regard to the role of cheap electricity produced from renewable sources – such as solar energy – in transforming the country into a global leader in the production of green hydrogen, stressing that the opportunity is ripe.
“Over the past 5 years, India has had the largest share in solar energy production globally,” said the head of the International Energy Agency, adding that it provided electricity to 500 million people, and cooking gas to about 100 million people, which contributed to reducing household pollution resulting from the use of wood. .
In the same context, Birol said that India is able to use the cheap electricity it produces from renewable sources to produce green hydrogen, which is the cleanest known form of energy, pointing out that India may become the owner of the cheapest production of green hydrogen.
“In my view, India cannot miss this historic opportunity to be a pioneer and superpower in green hydrogen production,” he added.
Birol had said 6 years ago that India would be at the forefront of global energy affairs.
He commented, “After 6 years, I can tell you that today India is at the center of global energy affairs.”
He explained, saying that the matter is not only related to the huge demand for oil, but also to the large steps in generating electricity from renewable energy sources, such as solar energy, and the use of biofuels such as ethanol produced from sugar cane, grains and agricultural waste, to replace fossil fuels.
Birol pointed out that mixing methanol by 10% with gasoline will help India to provide oil imports worth two million dollars.
Carbon neutrality
Commenting on Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri’s statement that India is capable of achieving its carbon neutrality target ahead of schedule in 2070, Birol said the country is “doing an excellent job” on clean energy.
“It is very good news for India and for the rest of the world,” he added.
He continued, “I believe that rich countries should also achieve the goals of carbon neutrality before their current date in 2050, and thus will leave enough room for emerging countries to achieve their own goals, so that the whole world can reach the goal before 2050.”
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