Oil production in the Congo is expected to increase significantly by next year (2024), before a review of baselines for OPEC+ countries in November, which may see an increase in quotas.
It was agreed to cut the alliance’s total production by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2024, after hours of tense negotiations at the last OPEC+ ministerial meeting on June 4, as Congo, Nigeria, Angola and Equatorial Guinea failed to reach their quotas in recent years.
Countries were given until November 2023 to prove their ability to increase production, according to the specialized energy platform.
OPEC members from sub-Saharan Africa are racing to show higher production volumes to avoid deep cuts in their main production lines, from which quotas are calculated, whether up or down.
Oil production in the Congo
Congolese Oil Minister Bruno Jean-Richard Itua stated that his country’s production is just under 300,000 barrels per day of oil equivalent, but will rise to 400,000 barrels per day of oil equivalent by next year (2024), mostly from oil.
“We have very high expectations for an increase in production in one year,” Itoa said, in an interview with the “S&P Global” platform, on the sidelines of the OPEC International Symposium in Vienna, which was viewed by the specialized energy platform.
The share of oil production in Congo is currently 310,000 barrels per day, but production reached 290,000 barrels per day last May, according to a survey conducted by S&P Global for OPEC + production.
Congo’s total oil and gas production was expected to rise to 114.2 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2030, from 108.6 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2023, driven by a slate of new projects, according to forecasts from S&P Global.
The following table – prepared by the specialized energy platform – shows the share of oil production in the Congo during 2024:
Gas production in the Congo
As the country looks forward to boosting its production in the future, Congolese Oil Minister Bruno Jean-Richard Itoa said, “The gas projects are promising… I hope we can double gas production in the next two or three years,” in the interview that was released. Details on the specialized energy platform.
One of these projects is the “Marine 12” gas project, which Congo hopes to launch in December. This additional production would provide supplies to the local market, which relies on gas for 70% of its electricity, and other quantities such as liquefied petroleum gas for cooking.
Gas from Marine 12 will also support the country’s major LNG production and export plans. Congo expects to launch LNG shipments in October 2023.
It also expects to increase exports from 600,000 metric tons per year to 3 million metric tons of LNG in 2025, when another floating LNG terminal with a capacity of 2.4 million tons per year is operational; The country aims to become one of the top 5 exporters of liquefied natural gas in the world.
Itua added that Congo expects to announce a major gas discovery within a year and is currently moving forward with new legislation for the gas industry.
Cut OPEC+ production and oil prices
OPEC + members reduced actual production and quotas in an attempt to support prices, as the coalition ministers decided – during their last meeting last June – to adjust the base month in the period from January 1 to December 31, 2024, bringing the total production to 40.46 million barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia and 8 other countries in the coalition also announced that the additional voluntary cut, which it began implementing in May 2023 by 1.6 million barrels per day, will extend until the end of 2024, instead of the end of this year.
The following table – prepared by the specialized energy platform – shows the oil production quotas for OPEC + countries in 2024, after extending the voluntary cut:
Saudi Arabia announced an additional cut of 1 million barrels per day in July, then extended it for another month in August. Russia also decided to cut crude oil exports by 500,000 barrels per day.
For his part, Congolese Oil Minister Bruno Jean-Richard Itoa said that the current oil prices are at a good level for the Republic of the Congo.
And he explained – in his statements, which were viewed by the specialized energy platform -: “We need the right balance.. In fact, about $70 a barrel today is a good price.. This was the basis for our budget: $70-75 a barrel.”
Congo’s oil minister also indicated that world prices should be at a level that would support 3 main market needs: attracting investment, supporting producers’ budgetary and social needs, and financing the energy transition.
“We don’t want prices to be too high, because if they are too high, it will reduce consumption,” he said.
Increase in OPEC member countries
Congo’s Oil Minister Bruno Jean-Richard Itoa has expressed support for increased dialogue outside of current OPEC+ members, amid calls for an increase in OPEC’s market share.
Itwa said: “Our call to other producing countries is not to join OPEC and OPEC +, but only to talk to us, and then we will see what is best for the market, for oil, for gas, for all of us .. The OPEC + alliance is a good starting point .. I hope we have More dialogue with other countries.
OPEC+ is targeting greater cooperation with producers outside the group, and may add new members to the alliance. On July 5, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais said that he supports expansion, which will increase its impact on the market.
In the longer term, Congo’s oil minister warned that a lack of investment in the oil and gas sector by international banks would be a big mistake, particularly in Africa, where hundreds of millions lack access to electricity, and where Western governments have turned to new supplies after moving to reduce oil and gas imports from the country. Russia after the invasion.
“How can you produce more if you don’t invest?” Itwa said.
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