Oil production in Nigeria is set to drop dramatically in March 2023 and beyond, due to the recent bombings of a major pipeline in the Niger Delta region.
A major export pipeline exploded in the oil-rich Niger Delta region, Thursday evening, March 2, 2023, killing 12 people and injuring others, according to the specialized energy platform.
The Nigerian authorities are conducting an investigation into the accident in cooperation with Shell Petroleum Development, the operator of the pipeline, but the final results of the investigation have not yet been announced.
180 thousand barrels per day
Observers expect oil production in Nigeria to suffer a significant loss, which may reach 180,000 barrels per day during March 2023, if the explosive line is not repaired quickly, according to the specialized local Punchng website.
These estimates mean that Nigerian oil exports may lose more than 4 million barrels this month, according to the specialized energy platform.
The average oil production losses in Nigeria amounted to approximately 500,000 barrels per day during 2022, due to the phenomenon of organized theft that has been rampant in the country for years.
Oil production has rebounded in Nigeria since September 2022, after the country succeeded in partially curbing the phenomenon of theft in the Niger Delta region.
rebound since September
The government has hired a militant leader in the region, tasking him with protecting pipelines from criminal gangs since mid-June 2022, which has led to a decrease in theft rates.
The country was optimistic about pumping 31.1 million barrels in the last 4 months, after the unrest in the Niger Delta region subsided, according to the specialized energy platform.
Recent data showed the country’s production rebounding to 1.3 million barrels per day during February 2023, according to a periodic survey issued by Reuters.
The sale of Bonny Light crude oil rose to $84 per barrel in February 2023, generating significant revenues of more than 1.4 trillion Nigerian naira.
($1 = 460.4 Nigerian naira)
Officials stated that the country could reach OPEC’s quota of 1.8 million barrels during March 2023 and beyond, but the recent bombing incident dashed optimists’ hopes that Nigeria would return to the African lead again.
Angola instead of Nigeria
Angola has occupied the first place in African oil production since last year (2022) for reasons not due to an increase in its production as much as due to the disruption of production in Nigeria, according to what was monitored by the specialized energy platform.
Preliminary results of the Niger Delta pipeline accident investigations on March 2, 2023 indicate that the explosion occurred on a bus loaded with stolen oil, which led to the explosion of the pipeline at the accident site.
The accident led to the burning of 12 people, including women, as some of them were responsible for unloading the oil from the line, and others were waiting for loading at the bus, and their personal identities are still unknown due to their complete disfigurement.
Also, 5 vehicles, 4 tricycles and 1 motorcycle were burnt, and they all turned into wreckage from the intensity of their melting, according to what the specialized energy platform monitored from preliminary investigations.
900 thousand barrels per day
This incident increased the concerns of state and independent actors in the Nigerian oil sector for their oil business and interests in the country.
He warned the CEO of the Nigerian National Oil Corporation, owned by the government, Milli Kyari, the rise in the country’s losses from these works to 900 barrels per day.
He also warned of the difficulty of Nigeria reaching the estimated production quota from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), during the year 2023, as monitored by the specialized energy platform.
Nigerian elections
The Niger Delta pipeline bombing incident comes just two days after the results of the Nigerian presidential elections (early March 2023) were announced, in which the ruling party candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, won.
Tinubu promised in his electoral program to strengthen cooperation between the security services and oil companies to combat the phenomenon of oil theft rampant in the country since last year.
Although Tinubu obtained a comfortable majority nationwide, he will face great challenges in policing the oil-rich Niger Delta region, due to his failure to win the confidence of most voters in the region.
The status of the Niger Delta region differs from other Nigerian regions for many reasons, most notably the presence of an armed movement claiming to be fighting for the liberation of the region in a separate republic since 2006.
Most of the region’s residents voted for the rival Workers’ Party candidate, which makes it likely that the ruling party’s candidate will have difficulty controlling the phenomenon of theft on the one hand and the unity of the region on the other, according to what was monitored by the specialized energy platform.
Most of the domestic oil theft is concentrated in the Niger Delta region, which led to a decline in the country’s production over the past year to its lowest level in 32 years.
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