The US Energy Information Administration cut oil price forecasts during the current year (2023) by more than 10%, while raising estimates of US crude production.
According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook report for January 2023 – issued today, Tuesday, January 10 – it is likely that the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil will reach $ 77.18 per barrel during 2023, compared to $ 86.36 in December estimates; This represents a decrease of about 10.6%.
In its preliminary forecasts for 2024, the Energy Information Administration sees Brent and WTI prices at $71.57 and $77.57 per barrel, respectively, according to the report seen by the Energy Research Unit.
Oil price forecast
The Energy Information Administration cut its estimate for the price of Brent crude by 10% to $83.10 a barrel this year, compared to $92.36 a barrel previously forecast.
This comes with expectations of a slowdown in global oil demand and an increase in global oil stocks. This puts downward pressure on crude oil prices.
In the past year (2022), it is estimated that Brent crude recorded a level of $ 100.94 per barrel, down 0.5% from previous estimates.
While the Energy Information Administration estimates that the US crude price has averaged $99.91 per barrel over the past year, compared to last month’s estimate of $95.22 per barrel.
The following chart monitors daily oil price movements during 2022, according to the US Energy Information Administration:
US oil production
Average oil production in the United States is expected to rise to 12.41 million barrels per day in 2023, an increase of 0.6% from the previous forecast of 12.34 million.
While the Energy Information Administration cut its estimate of average US oil production in 2022 by 0.1%, to 11.86 million barrels per day.
And in 2024, oil production in the United States is likely to rise to 12.81 million barrels per day, according to data seen by the Energy Research Unit.
The following graph shows the US production of crude oil on a monthly basis, between 2019 and 2023:
OPEC production and the world
The Energy Information Administration expects the average OPEC production of crude oil to decline to 28.87 million barrels per day in the current year, compared to previous estimates of 29 million barrels per day, and compared to 28.68 million in 2022.
It is likely that OPEC oil production will reach 29.51 million barrels per day next year, according to the report, which was followed by the Energy Research Unit.
It is expected that world production of oil and other liquids will reach 101.10 million barrels per day, this year, compared to previous expectations at 101.06 million barrels per day, and compared to 99.98 million last year.
In 2024, world production of oil and other liquids is expected to rise to 102.83 million barrels per day, with increased supplies from non-OPEC countries.
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